Economic Commentary

September 30, 2026

U.S./Iran Conflict Intensifies

Geopolitical risks flared up yet again as the cease fire between the U.S. and Iran failed to hold. Both sides have blamed the other for breaching the terms of the temporary agreement that had brought a brief pause to hostilities. As further military strikes by the U.S. failed to result in an easing of Iranian demands, President Trump has changed course to rely more on economic sanctions as opposed to military strikes in an attempt to isolate the Iranian regime. With both sides now dug in on their demands, investors have resigned themselves to the fact that a resolution to the conflict is not forthcoming. The political implications of another pro-longed war in the Middle East could soon be felt as the U.S. looks forward to their mid-term elections in November. Early polling suggests Republicans are facing significant headwinds as President Trump’s popularity sinks with voters facing higher costs at home in the form of higher gas prices, food prices and mortgage rates. The results of the mid-terms could have a significant impact depending on which party emerges with control over the House and Senate.